Ten years after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Each authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
